Judgment Has Begun
Four weeks isn't enough to determine who will win this league. It is, however, becoming plenty of time to identify some teams that won't.
There comes a point every season when patience stops being a virtue and starts becoming an excuse. We're there. Nobody is mathematically eliminated, nobody should begin dismantling their roster, and I'm sure several owners currently sitting near the bottom have already constructed compelling explanations for why everything is about to turn around. I encourage optimism. It makes what happens next much more entertaining.
Week 4 gave us two undefeated teams, three winless teams, a defending champion finally knocked from their throne, a divisional massacre, several teams quietly becoming relevant, and enough points stranded on benches to remind me why lineup management remains an owner responsibility.
Judgment has begun.
THE MIDDLE HAS TEETH
MaxxCasualties started their season by scoring 69 points and receiving an F+ for their draft. Three weeks later, the Casualties are 3-1 and riding a three-game winning streak.
This week they beat Fat Cats 110-87 despite leaving Tyquan Thornton and his 27 points on the bench. Apparently they've reached the stage where they can begin withholding resources and still win comfortably. Jared Goff provided 22, the Packers defense added 17, and Brock Bowers contributed 15 as the Casualties continued their quiet migration from draft-night disappointment to legitimate problem.
The Gotham Rogues have arrived at the same 3-1 record by considerably less peaceful means. The Rogues defeated Baby Got Dak 77-72 despite posting the league's worst Roster Management Score at 68.8%. T.J. Hockenson scored 16 from the bench while Travis Kelce contributed one, and recently acquired Saquon Barkley managed two carries before leaving with a hamstring injury.
Naturally, the Rogues were prepared for such an occasion, acquiring Joe Mixon on Saturday morning approximately five seconds after news broke that he was signing with Seattle. Then, just as I was writing this, the Seahawks reportedly declined to sign Mixon following his physical.
The Rogues promptly dropped him.
Four trades apparently weren't enough. Now we're day trading free agents based on breaking news.
At this point, GR doesn't need a depth chart. It needs a Bloomberg terminal.
PERFECTION, MINUS ONE
The Tallahassee Tator Tots didn't merely hand the defending champs their first loss. The Tots beat the Consolation Kings 122-91 while posting the best Roster Management Score in the league this week at 96.8%.
CeeDee Lamb supplied 30 points on 17 receptions, becoming only the ninth player in NFL history with at least that many catches in a game. Brock Purdy added 25 and Spencer Shrader contributed 16.
And then there was Kendre Miller.
Miller scored -1.
Had he scored just four points, the Tots coaching staff would have achieved a perfect 100% Roster Management Score. Instead, eight starters did their jobs while Miller actively deducted from the final product.
I've managed this league long enough to recognize perfection as suspicious anyway.
The Consolation Kings fall to 3-1. The crown remains intact. It simply has a potato-shaped dent in it.
REPORTS OF DEATH WERE PREMATURE
Two weeks ago, Tortuga reportedly announced that this league was easy.
The league responded appropriately.
After opening with 121 points, Tortuga dropped to 92, then 71, lost twice, and was voted out of the Survivor Challenge. I considered the matter settled.
Apparently Tortuga did not.
They erupted for 129 points this week, a 58-point improvement, and Tetairoa McMillan went from one point in Week 3 to a league-best 36 among wide receivers in Week 4. Chuba Hubbard added 29 and Emanuel Wilson 25 as Tortuga smashed Deez Nuts 129-101.
McMillan gets next week off for his bye, presumably because improving another 35 points would violate several ESPN scoring limits.
Elsewhere, Badazz Bri has quietly recovered from an 0-2 start with consecutive wins. Bri wasn't spectacular in beating Who Is You 95-82, but after spending the opening weeks getting beaten with the league's toughest schedule, ordinary competence probably feels luxurious.
Some teams announce their arrival.
Others simply stop losing.
THE WEST HAS FALLEN
Sagebrush West teams played Cactus West teams in four games this week.
Sagebrush West teams won four games.
Cerebral Ballsy beat Uncle Bucky 123-89. Tallahassee Tator Tots beat Consolation Kings 122-91. MaxxCasualties beat Fat Cats 110-87. Tortuga beat Deez Nuts 129-101.
That's four games decided by an average of 29 points. The closest was the Fat Cats 23-point loss to Casualties, which is a generous interpretation of the word "closest."
I'm not prepared to declare Sagebrush West superior after one weekend. I am prepared to note that Cactus West was given four opportunities to produce a rebuttal and apparently declined.
We'll revisit the matter when they're ready.
GOOD NEWS, FAT CATS
Drake Maye finally arrived.
After scoring 11, 5 and 0 points during the first three weeks, Maye exploded for 30 against MaxxCasualties—the highest quarterback score in the league this week.
Fat Cats lost by 23.
This is the sort of efficiency I appreciate. The Cats managed to solve one problem without altering the outcome whatsoever.
The Cats are now 0-4 and have surrendered 483 points, most in the league. At some point the nine-lives theory is going to require clarification, because I was under the impression at least one of them involved living.
THE POINTS YOU CHOSE NOT TO USE
The Golden Tate Warriors came closer than anyone has this season to knocking off Pork Chop Express, losing 100-93.
The necessary points were available.
They were simply stored safely on the bench.
The Warriors started Buffalo's defense and received zero points. Tampa Bay's defense scored 16 from the bench. Saturday evening, the Warriors also traded Tucker Kraft to Cerebral Ballsy for Josh Downs. On Sunday, Kraft scored 11.
Downs scored one.
I generally recommend allowing trades some time before evaluating them. Twenty-four hours feels unnecessarily soon.
Baby Got Dak performed a similar trick against the Gotham Rogues. Dak lost by five while Malachi Fields and RJ Harvey combined for 21 points on the bench. The ingredients for victory were present. Assembly was apparently sold separately.
There are many ways to lose a fantasy football game. Having the winning points on your roster and carefully avoiding them remains among the more sophisticated.
BUSINESS AS USUAL
At the top, not much required explanation.
Los Perros Locos scored 145 points, the highest total of Week 4 and the third time in four weeks the dogs have led the league. Kenneth Walker III contributed 34 and was the week's highest-scoring running back for the second time this season.
Pork Chop Express had what qualifies as an off week, dropping from 135 points to exactly 100, and still won. Their Vikings defense led all D/STs with 23 points, giving the Chops the week's top defense for the second consecutive week.
And Cerebral Ballsy beat Uncle Bucky 123-89 to move to 4-0 alongside the Chops. Ballsy has now scored at least 100 points every week without requiring much attention from me, which is generally a compliment. Owners should aspire to become administratively unnecessary.
Pork Chop Express, Los Perros Locos and Tallahassee Tator Tots join Ballsy as the only teams that have yet to score below 100. The Chops reached that threshold this week with all the grace of someone catching an elevator door with a shoe, but 100 is 100.
THE OTHER SIDE OF 100
Deez Nuts finally broke through with 101 points this week.
They lost by 28.
That leaves Baby Got Dak, Golden Tate Warriors and Do Not Panic as the only teams yet to produce a 100-point game. Their season highs are 98, 93 and 88, respectively.
The Warriors and Panic are now 0-4 alongside the Fat Cats. Baby Got Dak isn't winless, but after opening with a victory they have dropped three straight.
I'm aware that it's only Week 4. There are plenty of games remaining, plenty of waiver claims to make, trades to consider, injuries to survive and poor decisions yet to be discovered.
But "it's early" has an expiration date.
We're getting close.
JUDGMENT DAY
Four weeks have produced two 4-0 teams, three 3-1 teams, three 0-4 teams, and a rapidly shrinking supply of plausible explanations.
Nobody has won anything yet. The Chops and Ballsy can both collapse. Consolation Kings can recover. The Perros can continue scoring 140 points and somehow find new ways to annoy everyone. Teams sitting at 1-3 or 0-4 can absolutely turn their seasons around.
That's the beauty of fantasy football.
The less beautiful part is that eventually you have to actually do it.
Four weeks isn't enough for me to tell you who's going to win this league.
But I'm beginning to develop some strong opinions about who isn't.
Best of luck in Week 5!
Commish
Golden Ticket
We have a new leader, although calling it a “lead” feels generous. MaxxCasualties has moved into first with 658 points, while Do Not Panic sits exactly two points behind at 656. Yes, the same Do Not Panic currently averaging fewer than 60 points per week in the actual league has assembled a Golden Ticket roster averaging 164. Apparently removing lineup decisions, waivers, opponents and most forms of ownership responsibility has unlocked their true potential. The Casualties’ formula has been equally effective, with Josh Allen and Kenneth Walker III already combining for 265 points while Derrick Henry has added another 134.
After those two, there is daylight. Consolation Kings climbs into third at 609, Perros sits fourth at 608, and the Chops move up to fifth at 596. The biggest mover was Who Is You, climbing four spots to ninth, while Gotham Rogues remains firmly attached to 16th at 420—now 238 points behind the leader. The Rogues' Golden Ticket roster includes 24 points from Saquon Barkley and just 45 from Jayden Daniels, so apparently even in a contest where they're prohibited from trading, their roster has found another way to create turnover.
Four weeks down, two points separate first from second, and the Rogues nearly two-and-a-half good fantasy weeks behind. The Golden Ticket remains available. Some teams may require a connecting flight.
Pigskin Pick'Em
Gotham Rogues remains on top at 43-21, apparently proving they are considerably better at selecting NFL teams than deciding which players should actually be in their own starting lineup. Do Not Panic remains two games back, while Baby Got Dak, Deez Nuts and Tallahassee Tator Tots are packed together at 40-24, just three games off the lead. With nine teams within five games of first, this remains less a leaderboard than a traffic jam involving people who all believe they know football.
At the other end, Los Perros Locos has tightened its grip on last place at 29-35 and is now the only team picking NFL games below .500. The dogs can score 145 points in fantasy football without much difficulty, but apparently asking them to identify which actual NFL teams will win is where things become unreasonable.
Eliminator Challenge
For the second straight week, the Eliminator Challenge eliminated absolutely no one. Baby Got Dak trusted Chicago, Panic, Tortuga, Chops and Bucky formed a small congregation around Minnesota, while the Cats, Warriors and Rogues put their survival in Baltimore’s hands—and somehow everyone escaped alive. After slaughtering half the field in the first two weeks, the Eliminator has apparently entered a rebuilding phase.
Survivor Challenge
Baby Got Dak is the latest team to have its torch extinguished after managing just 72 points, leaving the island with considerably less Dak than its name continues to advertise. At the opposite end, Los Perros Locos posted a league-best 145 points to claim immunity for Week 5, meaning they can spend next week safely watching everyone else scramble for survival. The dogs get a week at the resort. Someone else gets voted off the island.
Power Rankings
Pork Chop Express holds the top spot for another week, but Perros are now breathing directly down their neck—just 1.67 points separate the top two after the dogs dropped another 145. The bigger movement comes behind them: Tallahassee Tator Tots climbs two spots to #3 after knocking off Consolation Kings, while Tortuga launches from #11 to #6 following their 129-point resurrection. MaxxCasualties also continues their rehabilitation, moving to #7 after a third straight win. Apparently my early assessments have motivated several teams. You're welcome.
The rankings are less charitable to Who Is You, who tumbles four spots to #11, while the Kings and Rogues each slide two despite sitting at 3-1. Cerebral Ballsy remains undefeated at #4, although possessing the league's easiest schedule continues to keep the computers from becoming emotionally attached. And at the bottom, the Warriors and Panic remain undisturbed at #15 and #16. Some teams climb the Power Rankings. Others provide the foundation.
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