Every If, And, or But
- Commish
- Dec 2
- 10 min read
Thirteen weeks. Thirteen long, unpredictable, occasionally incoherent weeks have dragged us to the doorstep of the regular-season finale, and I’d be lying if I said I recognized half the teams we started with. Some rose, some cratered, some spent three months thrashing around in the shallow end like they forgot this was supposed to be competitive. But here we are, somehow, staring at a playoff picture that is equal parts clarity and chaos—my personal specialty.
Before we dive into the mess, I suppose I should offer some reluctant golf claps for our four division winners. Badazz Bri, who won the Sagebrush East mostly by virtue of not collapsing; Cerebral Ballsy, whose season has resembled a lukewarm miracle; Who Is You, who treated the Cactus East like a personal playground; and Fat Cats, who… well, actually no—strike that. Fat Cats haven’t clinched. (See? This is what thirteen weeks of madness does to a person.) Ah, yes...the Consolation Kings! The Consolation Kings deserve their due for taking the Cactus West, though it comes at the cost of not defending their legendary consolation bracket reputation. Four champions who survived thirteen weeks of confusion and remain standing taller than the rest.
But the real postseason intrigue lives elsewhere: with the bubble teams clutching at scenarios, tiebreakers, and spiritual intervention. This is the week where math becomes prophecy, where point totals matter as much as wins, and where a single touchdown can rewrite a season. Every if, and, or but you can imagine is now in play, and I’ve taken it upon myself—yet again—to explain the convoluted math to the masses. So gather your hopes, your spreadsheets, and whatever faint dignity remains. The postseason is calling… though for some of you, it’s very much a wrong number.
Sagebrush Conference Wild Card Race
Gotham Rogues (7-6)
The Rogues enter the final week in the strongest position: a simple “win and you’re in” scenario. You would think that alone would bring some confidence to Gotham City Stadium, but the Rogues spent the back half of the season scoring points like they’re rationing electricity. Their 1205 total points won’t impress anyone, but it only has to be better than Blue Ribbon’s 1204. If math is not your strength, just know that if the Rogues beat Ribbon, it's very likely they'll do so by more than -1 point.
If they lose… well, they still might stumble backward into the playoffs so long as MaxxCasualties doesn’t elevate themselves and Ribbon doesn’t outscore them by even a single point.
MaxxCasualties (6-7)
MaxxCasualties arrive at Week 14 armed with one of the most powerful tie-breaking weapons in the conference: 1392 points scored and the offensive profile of a team that deserved far better than a 6–7 record. They’ve dragged themselves through the league’s toughest schedule, survived injuries, chaos, and whatever that Week 11 performance was supposed to be, and still enter the final week with their playoff destiny almost entirely in their control. A win guarantees a Wild Card spot—no asterisks, no refreshing FantasyCast, no existential math crises. They simply jump to 7–7, and their scoring advantage bulldozes any competition that tries to join them there.
The only way MaxxCasualties miss the playoffs is if they lose and the Rogues lose to Blue Ribbon. That’s it. One razor-thin combination that would leave them stranded at 6–8 behind a pair of 7–7 teams.
So yes, the Casualties still need a little help if they fail to handle their business, but the broader reality is clear: their path is the cleanest of the bunch. Win and they’re in. Lose and they better bring pom-poms and cheer for Gotham Rogues. If you’re looking for drama, you won’t find it here. The Casualties’ path is so straightforward that even the Rogues could probably follow it.
Blue Ribbon (6-7)
Blue Ribbon, bless their inconsistent little hearts, still has a path to the playoffs. First, their game against Gotham Rogues decides everything. If Ribbon loses to a Rogues team that has recently been scoring like their starters forgot their cleats, the story ends immediately. At 6–8, they’re eliminated because—let’s be honest—they're not making up a 188-point scoring deficit on MaxxCasualties, so their season becomes a chalk outline.
But if Blue Ribbon beats the Rogues? Now we’ve got something. That win lifts them to 7–7 and drops the Rogues to 7–7 as well. And given the microscopic 1-point gap in scoring between the two, Ribbon beating Gotham Rogues would, in all likelihood, leapfrog them in the tie-breaker. In other words: beat the Rogues by 2 points or more and they secure the edge they need. From there, all they need is the final piece... MaxxCasualties to lose. If the Casualties trip at the finish line, Blue Ribbon walks into the postseason as one of the two 7–7 Wild Cards, carrying just enough offense to qualify and absolutely none to inspire confidence.
Cactus Conference Wild Card Race
Uncle Bucky (7-6)
Uncle Bucky has spent the better part of the season treating the playoff chase like a casual stroll, occasionally tripping, occasionally sprinting, but never quite committing to either. And now here they are, sitting at 7–6 with the clearest path of anyone in the Cactus Wild Card scrum: just beat Los Perros Locos and they’re basically in. Bucky’s points-scored cushion is enormous, practically engraved in stone, meaning that any tie they fall into, they’re probably crawling out of it with ease.
But if they lose? Well, then Uncle Bucky becomes just another 7–7 team praying for Fat Cats and Pork Chop Express to implode in unison—an outcome that’s theoretically possible, but feels morally dubious to count on. The good news is that Bucky is the type of team that tends to rise in moments like this. The bad news is that they’re also the type of team that occasionally forgets to set their lineup until five minutes before kickoff. For their sake, let’s hope they remember which version of themselves they want to be this week.
Los Perros Locos (7-6)
The Los Perros Locos have spent the year swinging wildly between contender and pretender, but they enter Week 14 with the luxury of a simple truth: win, and they’re almost certainly in. Their level of scoring is strong enough to fend off Fat Cats and light-years ahead of Pork Chop Express, and only Uncle Bucky holds a meaningful advantage. Beating Bucky gets the Perros to 8–6, and once you’re 8–6 in this conference, you might as well start mapping your travel plans for the first round.
But if the dogs lose? Oh, then the fun begins. Suddenly they’re 7–7, and their playoff hopes depend entirely on Fat Cats and Pork Chop Express both losing—an alignment so specific it should come with a star chart. Even if that happens, the Perros would still need to avoid getting outscored by 22 points relative to the Fat Cats. In other words, the Perros are either kicking the playoff door open or they're going belly-up on the rug. No middle ground.
Fat Cats (7-6)
The Cats stroll into Week 14 with a gift-wrapped opportunity that most bubble teams would sacrifice a flex player to have: all they have to do is beat Who Is You—simple, clean, no fine print. Yes, it’s a terrible opponent to draw in a must-win situation, but the Cats don’t have to scoreboard-watch, sweat tiebreakers, or hope the universe does them any favors. Just win, reach 8–6, and they are mathematically and spiritually in. The entire Bucky–Perros showdown becomes background noise, and Pork Chop Express can drop 200 points if they want—it won’t matter.
But the moment the Cats lose? Oh, then they’re tossed into a 7–7 blender where they need Pork Chop to also lose and must somehow outscore the loser of Bucky–Perros by either 22 or 53 points depending on which poor soul drops that game. It’s doable… theoretically… in the same way running a marathon after Thanksgiving dinner is “doable.”
So the Cats can take the easy path—beat You and avoid all that nonsense—or they can let their season hinge on an actuarial nightmare of total-scoring math and prayers for Pork Chop’s continued mediocrity. It’s really their choice.
Pork Chop Express (7-6)
And then there’s Pork Chop Express, the team whose season scoring is so catastrophically behind the pack that it looks like they spent half the season fielding a roster of imaginary friends. But even with that number dragging behind them like a broken muffler, the Chops enter Week 14 with a path to the playoffs that is rather simple, though largely out of their control: win their game, and pray—fervently, loudly, dramatically—that Fat Cats lose. That’s it. Nothing else matters. The Bucky–Perros matchup? Irrelevant. The scoring tie-breaker? Completely hopeless. The Chops have no scoring equity whatsoever, so the only way they grab a Wild Card is by becoming one of the only two 8–6 teams in the conference. So yes, Pork Chop Express control half of their destiny, but must outsource the other half to Who Is You. They’re alive, but so is a phone with 3% battery.
And so here we are, staring down the final week of the regular season with playoff hopefuls teetering on the edge of glory and catastrophe. Some still control their own fate; others must rely on opponents, tiebreakers, and the miracle-working properties of sheer delusion. But each will find out soon enough whether their season was a masterclass, a misstep, or a long, winding stumble into Week 14 with nothing but pride left to defend.
Of course, I would be remiss if I didn’t address the teams whose roads end here, even if those roads were pothole-ridden from the start. Do Not Panic, who clearly did. Golden Tate Warriors, whose postseason dreams expired somewhere in mid-October. Deez Nuts, who spent most of the season impersonating a bye week. Tallahassee Tator Tots, who valiantly resisted scoring for nearly three months. And Baby Got Dak, who most certainly did not. Your contributions were noted. Briefly.
To the teams still fighting: one week remains. One shot to prove you belong. One chance to avoid the dreaded consolation bracket that will swallow the unworthy. Week 14 will write the last chapter of the regular season, so tighten your lineups, buckle your chinstraps, and brace yourselves. The postseason is coming, and it has no patience for excuses.
Best of luck this week!
Commish
Golden Ticket
The Golden Ticket standings tightened up after Week 13, with Fat Cats clinging to first place at 1951 points while Who Is You lurks just 35 points behind... close enough that one explosive performance could flip the whole contest on its head. Cerebral Ballsy and Los Perros Locos remain within striking distance, but they’ll need more than polite scoring to close a 170+ point gap in the few remaining weeks. The top contenders all brought heavy artillery. When your roster includes point-hoarders like Mahomes (370), Jonathan Taylor (368), and Kyren Williams (255), you’re built to stay dangerous all the way through Week 14.
Meanwhile, the bottom half of the standings is… well… present. Golden Tate Warriors, MaxxCasualties, and Consolation Kings all hover in the middle without quite threatening the leaders, and below them, Pork Chop Express, Blue Ribbon, Deez Nuts, and Baby Got Dak are simply playing for pride—and even that’s generous. With a 35-point gap at the top and one week left, this contest is far from over. If Fat Cats slip, Who Is You is poised to pounce, and everyone else is hoping for a miracle loud enough to wake the league from its Thanksgiving food coma.
Pigskin Pick'Em
The Pick’Em leaderboard looks like a thriller novel heading into its final chapter. Baby Got Dak still clings to first with 133 correct picks, but Cerebral Ballsy trails by a single slip-up, and Uncle Bucky and Pork Chop Express hover close enough to matter... but not close enough to sleep well. Blue Ribbon, MaxxCasualties, and Perros sit within striking distance of each other, but unfortunately not of the actual lead. As usual, Pick’Em rewards consistency, clairvoyance, or dumb luck… and Dak seems to have all three.
Further down the standings, the middle tier continues to cannibalize itself while the bottom tier resembles a slow-moving train whose brakes gave out weeks ago. Fat Cats, Badazz Bri, Rogues, and Kings are battling only for the right to not be last, a noble but doomed pursuit. With one week left, expect drama, panic, and at least one person changing a pick at 9:58 AM only to regret it by noon. I enjoy this contest for one reason: everyone thinks they’re good at it… and only one of them is right.
Survivor Challenge
The Survivor Challenge has come down to its purest form: two teams, one week, winner-take-all. Uncle Bucky struck the first blow back in Week 12 with a 145–140 win, the kind of performance that instantly put Who Is You on notice. But last week, You fired right back, outpacing Bucky 102–82 and reminding everyone why they’ve been the odds-on favorite to win this contest all season. And so here we are, tied 1–1, with the entire competition resting on a single Week 14 score. Forget season totals. Forget seeding. Forget playoff hopes. All that matters now is who can outscore the other one more time. Bucky’s boom-or-bust volatility or You’s heavyweight consistency? One of them is about to claim the Survivor throne. The other will be remembered only for losing at the last possible moment.
Power Rankings
Who Is You stays planted at No. 1, looking as inevitable as ever, and doing their best impression of a team that actually knows football. Uncle Bucky clings to No. 2 with a power score that says “contender” but weekly behavior that occasionally says “did you forget to hydrate?” The real story, though, is MaxxCasualties exploding up the board to No. 3 after finally remembering they’re allowed to score points, even when the schedule isn’t actively trying to murder them. Meanwhile, Los Perros Locos and Fat Cats slide back a tick, mostly because the teams around them showed a pulse. It happens.
Cerebral Ballsy sits at No. 6, the picture of stability: never too high, never too low, like the league’s version of a thermostat you stopped noticing eight years ago. On the other end, Pork Chop Express makes a curious climb to No. 8 despite an offense that looks like it was written with disappearing ink. Badazz Bri also sneaks upward, but let’s not pretend a top-10 ranking makes up for their allergic reaction to scoring all season. Gotham Rogues, Baby Got Dak, and the usual basement-dwellers round out the bottom—unchallenged, unmoved, and unbothered, like they paid rent down there.
What If
If you’re ready to challenge everything you thought you knew about this season, take a deep breath and step into the What If matrix where Strength of Schedule isn’t just a statistic, it’s a revelation. Start with MaxxCasualties, who didn’t just draw the toughest schedule, they drew a difficulty level normally reserved for boss fights. Swap any team into the Casualties' path and the result is the same: 7–6 at best. Who Is You? 7–6. Consolation Kings? 5-8. Badazz Bri? 2-11. Everyone? Losing records. Meanwhile, Deez Nuts and Pork Chop Express sit right behind them in schedule misery, tied for the second-hardest road and making far more sense once you see what they’ve been up against.
Then wander over to the other extreme, where Badazz Bri has enjoyed the kind of schedule that could convert skeptics into conspiracy theorists. Nearly the entire league—14 of 16 teams!—would be over .500 if they played BB’s schedule. Four would cruise to 12–1, one more would be 11–2, and a pair would sit at 10–3 without breaking a sweat. The Consolation Kings aren’t far behind either with the second-easiest slate, one that would produce winning records for 12 different teams. So yes, by all means, go browse the matrix. It’s eye-opening, infuriating, validating, and humbling all at once… which is I highly recommend it.
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