Week 13 Commish's Picks
- Commish
- Nov 26, 2025
- 9 min read
Well, here we are... the Week 13 slate, otherwise known as the moment in the season where half the league tightens their chinstraps and the other half double-checks the expiration date on their emotional leftovers. I’ve sifted through the matchups, the injuries, the streaks, the collapses, and the statistical dumpster fires, and let me tell you… we’ve got a little bit of everything this week. A couple of division races that might get settled, a few playoff dreams hanging on with all the stability of a folding chair at a family reunion, and at least one game so meaningless it should come with a "May Cause Drowsiness" warning. Some teams are fighting for their playoff lives; others are fighting for something far more elusive... basic dignity.
And because the calendar demands it — and because Mrs. Commish insisted I include it or she’d “edit the post herself” (her words, not mine) — I suppose I must pause the usual doom-and-gloom long enough to say this: Happy Thanksgiving to all of you and your families. Whether your roster is thriving, collapsing, or on IR with “emotional soreness,” I genuinely appreciate that you all show up each season to make the Sagebrush Cactus League the chaotic, dramatic, occasionally inspiring circus that it is. You’ve all contributed to another fantastic year, even if some of you contributed primarily through comedic value.
So grab a plate, settle in, and get ready because this week is about to get messy, the playoff picture is about to get weirder, and at least one of you is going to be extremely thankful I didn’t pick your team to win this week. Let’s get to it.
Good luck!
Commish
Blue Ribbon vs Cerebral Ballsy
LINE: Cerebral Ballsy -11
Look, I try not to put too much weight on history when I make my picks. Teams evolve, rosters change, injuries happen, and Ribbon continues to play football despite all known evidence suggesting they shouldn’t. But this history is hard to ignore. Blue Ribbon has never beaten Cerebral Ballsy. Not once. They’ve tried three times and have been politely escorted off the premises each time by margins of 29, 14, and 32 points. At this point, “Blue Ribbon vs. Cerebral Ballsy” is less a rivalry and more a recurring appointment on Ballsy’s calendar marked “light cardio.”
Now, Blue Ribbon arrives at Congenital Coliseum sporting that classic Ribbon profile: big-name QB (Hurts), some sturdy pieces (Montgomery, Andrews), and a whole lot of “please don’t crater this week.” And sure, Jalen Hurts could absolutely go nuclear against Chicago, but let’s not pretend this is a team built for fireworks. They’ve only cracked 100 points three times all year. That’s fewer than Ballsy has managed in just the last seven games. And with Ribbon averaging 94.1 pts/gm while Ballsy clocks in at 103.8, this is shaping up exactly like their Power Rankings suggest: 12th place pretending not to notice 6th place breathing down its neck.
Here’s the thing about Cerebral Ballsy: they are the only team in the league capable of scoring 135 one week and 68 the next and somehow making both outcomes feel completely normal. Last week’s 66-point faceplant was… something. Truly something. But even with that mark on their record, Ballsy still owns the superior scoring average, the tougher strength of schedule, and the significantly more dangerous lineup. Jonathan Taylor vs. Houston? Pittman vs. Houston? Chargers D/ST vs. a wobbly Raiders offense? There’s meat on the bone here, even without Tee Higgins.
A win here gives Cerebral Ballsy the Sagebrush West title and a guaranteed ticket to the postseason. It could also bring MaxxCasualties one step closer to sneaking in through the side door. A Ribbon victory, on the other hand, drops the entire division into a blender and hits “purée.” Normally, I love chaos… but in this specific case? I’m not sure Blue Ribbon is equipped for whatever moral responsibilities come with leading a division.
So yes, Ribbon might make this interesting for a quarter or two, but when the dust settles, Ballsy will be the ones carrying the division banner proudly into Week 14. Blue Ribbon, well… they’ll be carrying their 0–4 all-time record in this matchup. Some traditions shouldn’t be broken.
COMMISH'S PICK: Cerebral Ballsy
MaxxCasualties vs Tallahassee Tator Tots
LINE: MaxxCasulaties -15
Ketchup Coliseum will be hosting the Blackout Game of the Week, which honestly feels appropriate because watching Tallahassee Tator Tots try to score lately has been like watching a lightbulb flicker before it burns out completely. The Tots haven’t cracked 100 points since Week 6, and last week’s 52-point spud was their lowest offering yet... a performance so dim even RedZone couldn't find a highlight to air. Meanwhile, MaxxCasualties fights on with the league’s toughest schedule stapled to its forehead, clawing its way to 5–7 despite opponents averaging almost 109 points per game against them.
And somehow, MC is still mathematically alive. Their playoff chances aren’t so much “slim” as they are “the doctor whispered, ‘call the family.’” But credit where it’s due, the Casualties have outscored the Tots in nine of twelve weeks this season, won the last matchup convincingly, and trots out a core of Mahomes, James Cook, and Davante Adams that has no business missing the postseason… yet probably will anyway because fate has a twisted sense of humor. If there’s any justice left in the SCL universe, MaxxCasualties at least gets to keep breathing for another week.
The Tallahassee Tator Tots come into this contest with the energy of a team trying to locate the exit, not the playoffs. Look, Brock Purdy can do some wonderful things, but asking him to drag a team averaging 85.3 points per week into a late-season spoiler role is a little unfair. Ricky Pearsall and D’Andre Swift can flash here and there, but this lineup is simply outgunned. Even the Jets D/ST — their lone consistent bright spot — feels like a BB gun against Casualties' artillery. And if the Tots are depending on Trey Benson miraculously returning from IR to save the day, well… thoughts and prayers.
The Casualties don't just need a win, they need a statement. Fortunately for them, the Tator Tots haven't ended anybody's season but their own over the past few months. And, given the Tots are currently rolling out the fantasy equivalent of wet cardboard, this is the perfect opportunity for MaxxCasualties to pad their Total Points Scored and pretend they still control their own destiny. It won’t fix their season, but it’ll at least keep the heart monitor beeping.
COMMISH'S PICK: MaxxCasualties
Who Is You vs Los Perros Locos
LINE: Los Perros Locos -3
The Puppy Mill will be rocking this week, but unless the Los Perros Locos have a miracle tucked under the water bowl, this matchup has all the makings of another Who Is You flex session. The Perros have played the tougher schedule and have a couple of nuclear options in Dak, A.J. Brown, and George Kittle, but You is a machine right now — top of the Power Rankings, averaging 116 a game like it's no big deal, and coming in on a streak of 6 consecutive big-boy wins that would make most teams wilt. The Week 7 shootout between these two (148–134) proved the Perros can hang, but You has beaten them three straight times and has outscored them in the majority of weeks this year. And unlike the dogs, Who Is You isn’t playing for survival... they’re playing for seeding, swagger, and the right to remind everyone why they’ve already locked up a playoff spot. Los Perros Locos’ defense gives up 98 points a week, and that’s the sort of number Who Is You usually exceeds without even breaking a sweat. If Uncle Bucky and Fat Cats magically lose, the Perros might survive a loss. But counting on miracles is how seasons end in heartbreak and it looks like You is ready to take the Perros' season out behind the shed.
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
Consolation Kings vs Uncle Bucky
LINE: Uncle Bucky -1
The Hatchet House hosts a matchup featuring two teams somehow rolling out Bryce Young and Jacoby Brissett as if this were a 2023 preseason game, yet here we are — with playoff fates on the line. Uncle Bucky enters averaging nearly 114 points a game, sitting 2nd in the Power Rankings, and having never lost to Consolation Kings in four tries, including the Week 7 demolition where Bucky hung 149 on them without breaking a sweat. The Kings have fought admirably to reach 8-4, but their offense remains a weekly adventure: Achane can explode or vanish, Jacobs and DeVonta Smith are slapped with Q-tags, and relying on Bryce Young to keep pace with Diggs, Lamb, St. Brown, and JSN feels like bringing a paper kite into a wind tunnel. Uncle Bucky fans also might get the emotional return of Bucky Irving, which feels fitting at a venue called The Hatchet House... nothing like a namesake to sharpen the blade. The Consolation Kings can clinch a division title and playoff berth with a win, but Bucky has just as much to gain and far more firepower to deliver it. This one won’t be a blowout, but Uncle Bucky has the scoring consistency the Kings just can’t match.
COMMISH'S PICK: Uncle Bucky
Badazz Bri vs Gotham Rogues
LINE: Badazz Bri -9
Badazz Bri may be cruising at 9–3, but let’s be honest: this is a team that has spent most of the season winning pillow fights, not football games. Their scoring average (88.3 pts/game) still screams “middle school flag league,” and the Rogues know it... after all, they've outscored Bri in 7 of 12 weeks and have taken the last two meetings despite barely cracking 100 in either. Yes, the Rogues have been stuck in a four-week funk, averaging a miserable 67.8 points, but now they finally get a Badazz Bri team whose strength is “not losing” rather than “actually scoring.” Meanwhile, the Rogues have the better offensive core this week: Justin Jefferson hopes to return to life, Puka Nacua in a bounce-back spot, and even Sam Darnold doesn’t look completely unplayable against Minnesota’s defense. Bri has shown signs of competence lately, averaging 106.8 over the last month, but that’s the thing about luck: it tends to run out at the most inconvenient times. Badazz Bri may be trying to clinch the division, but I’ve seen this movie before — they bring the confetti, someone else gets to use it. Take Gotham Rogues to punch their playoff ticket this week in an upset.
COMMISH'S PICK: Gotham Rogues
Fat Cats vs Deez Nuts
LINE: Fat Cats -22
The Nut Hut has seen some lopsided matchups over the years, but this one might end up framed and hung on the wall as a reminder of what despair looks like. Deez Nuts hasn’t cracked 90 points since Week 4, hasn’t topped 100 more than once all season, and has outscored Fat Cats exactly one time... back in Week 5 when Fat Cats put up their worst score of the year, 57 pts. Meanwhile, the Cats are riding a streak of five straight 100+ point performances and have cleared the century mark eight times overall, doing it with a rotating cast of backs and receivers who always seem to show up when needed. Even without Drake London and Omarion Hampton, the Fat Cats' lineup features players with actual ceilings and brings more firepower than the Nuts’ entire active roster. Deez Nuts are clinging to T.J. Hockenson and the hope that Ashton Jeanty’s questionable tag magically turns into a miracle, but miracles don’t happen for 1–11 teams. The Cats are too balanced, too steady, and too motivated with the postseason looming. This one's over before it starts. The Cats will bat the Nuts around and stroll to another easy win.
COMMISH'S PICK: Fat Cats
Do Not Panic vs Golden Tate Warriors
LINE: Even
There are meaningless games… and then there’s this. Do Not Panic and Golden Tate Warriors enter Tate’s Retirement Retreat already eliminated, already demoralized, and already making me question why I bother analyzing games like this when I could be doing literally anything else... taxes, laundry, dental surgery, all viable alternatives. Neither team has cracked 100 points since the early weeks of the season, and their last showdown was a thrilling 73–71 barnburner that set offensive football back at least a decade. The Warriors are hoping that a questionable Saquon Barkley and DK Metcalf can provide a spark, but given how little punch this roster has shown, I’m not convinced it matters. Do Not Panic at least has a pulse, even if it’s faint, and Jared Goff should be able to cobble together just enough competence to get them over the top. If you watch this one voluntarily, I admire your commitment to suffering. This isn’t so much a matchup as it is an obligation, but if I have to pick a winner, I’ll take the team slightly less committed to punting on life.
COMMISH'S PICK: Do Not Panic
Pork Chop Express vs Baby Got Dak
LINE: Pork Chop Express -8
If Pork Chop Express thought they’d cruise into Faux Dak Field and boss this rivalry around, they might want to check the scoreboard history because these two don’t do “close.” They do obliteration. And while the Chops have been slogging through a schedule so brutal it should come with a waiver, it’s hard to ignore that recent 137–65 humiliation courtesy of Baby Got Dak back in Week 5. Sure, the Chops haves the RB firepower, but Baby Got Dak counters with Justin Herbert returning to relevance, Christian McCaffrey doing Christian McCaffrey things, and just enough supporting cast to make you think, “Yeah… they could totally ruin someone’s week.” And in a matchup where both teams are clinging to playoff life by dental floss, desperation tends to pick its favorite — and it doesn’t feel like it’s choosing the Pork Chop Express this time around. Add in Dak’s tendency to randomly detonate for monster weeks, and suddenly the “underdog” feels a lot less under and a lot more dog. It’s a rivalry too weird to trust the math, the trends, or common sense. Give me Baby Got Dak for the upset.
COMMISH'S PICK: Baby Got Dak
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