Week 5 Commish's Picks
- Commish
- 6 days ago
- 6 min read
Welcome to Week 5 - the mirage in the desert where optimism goes to die and reality shows up with a clipboard. Yes, bye weeks are here. This is the part of the season where rosters get desperate, waiver claims get personal, and every owner swears their team is “better than their record.” That “deep bench” you bragged about? Turns out it’s just a collection of practice squad players. Those “lock” matchups you circled back in August? They’ve aged like gas-station sushi.
In other words, it’s peak Sagebrush Cactus League: unstable, petty, and laughably entertaining.
I’ve once again subjected myself to the grueling, joyless task of predicting the utterly unpredictable - spending hours analyzing rosters, trends, matchups, and the faint smell of desperation wafting from half this league. It’s an exhausting ritual of spreadsheets, caffeine, and regret, all to determine which of you knuckleheads will accidentally stumble into victory this week.
Baby Got Dak vs Los Perros Locos
LINE: Baby Got Dak -2
They’ve played each other 39 times, own five league titles and eight division titles between them, and yet somehow the rivalry between Baby Got Dak and Los Perros Locos always feels like it’s just getting started. The records may not scream “marquee showdown” this year, but make no mistake: this is the main event. These two know how to throw haymakers, and they’ve been doing it since most of you were still figuring out how to set a lineup without accidentally starting a guy on bye.
The all-time tally leans slightly toward the dogs, 21-18, though neither side has ever been shy about pointing out the other’s shortcomings. Case in point: the Perros still brag about their franchise-record 181-point explosion in 2006 - against Baby Got Dak, naturally. Meanwhile, Dak’s squad clings to the irony that their namesake quarterback is wearing the wrong uniform every Sunday.
On paper, this is as tight as it gets. Neither team is lighting up the scoreboard this season - Dak scraping together 86.3 points per week, with the Perros lumbering to 95.5. But what they lack in fireworks they make up for in stingy defenses and the kind of trench-warfare football that leaves everyone involved regretting their life choices. Baby Got Dak will lean hard on Justin Herbert and Christian McCaffrey to carry the load, but with DJ Moore and Jonnu Smith out, as well as the recent loss of their star WR, Malik Nabers, the supporting cast looks shaky.
Los Perros, by contrast, aren’t exactly bulletproof. Kittle and Tracy are sidelined, which hurts, but Dak Prescott finally looks like he’s in rhythm, A.J. Brown is due for a turn-around after last week's 0 pt performance, and Kenneth Walker brings the punch to balance out the attack. Add to that the home-crowd's irritation with being a 2-point underdog at The Puppy Mill and you can probably guess which way this one might turn.
This one feels destined to go down to the wire - these contests usually do. But when you've been around the block as many times as these two have, experience matters. And experience says Los Perros Locos win the slugfest, pulling just enough from their patchwork roster to make sure Baby Got Dak stays the little brother in this rivalry.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
Cerebral Ballsy vs Tallahassee Tator Tots
LINE: Cerebral Ballsy -45
Every week the schedule spits out one matchup so bleak it makes you question why we even bother keeping stats. Welcome to Cerebral Ballsy versus Tallahassee Tator Tots, the Week 5 eyesore at Ketchup Coliseum. On one side, you’ve got Ballsy, the 0-4 wreck that somehow averages 100+ points but still finds creative ways to lose. On the other, the Tots, limping into the game with a backfield held together with rubber bands and wishful thinking.
Bijan? Out on bye. Swift? Hangin' out with Bijan. Conner? Done for the year. Benson? On crutches. That leaves Jared Goff trying to carry a lineup that looks like it was drafted at 2 a.m. after a chili cookoff. Ballsy, meanwhile, trots out Jayden Daniels, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, and Keenan Allen - a lineup that, while not terrifying, looks like the ‘07 Patriots compared to the Tots’ practice-squad cosplay.
The historical record between these two clowns is split, but history won’t matter this time. This isn’t a rivalry - it’s a charity event. These two split their last two meetings in the Consolation Bracket, which tells you everything you need to know about the level of competition. This time, there won’t be any splitting - Ballsy doesn’t just win here, they stroll out of Tator Town with the kind of easy victory that will have fans asking for a refund on their tickets. Honestly, the best highlight might be the ketchup dispensers at halftime. This one will be over before it starts, and the only real question is whether the Tots can break 70 points. Spoiler: they won’t.
COMMISH'S PICK: Cerebral Ballsy
Golden Tate Warriors vs Badazz Bri
LINE: EVEN
Badazz Bri versus Golden Tate has been a grudge match that's been simmering for over a decade, and the all-time series is basically a coin flip with Bri having won 11 of 20 contests. The long, bitter saga adds another chapter this week, and frankly, it looks more like a rehab assignment. The Warriors are without Lamar Jackson, Chuba Hubbard, Rome Odunze and any sign of life from Ja'Marr Chase, while Bri is dealing with 4 players on bye and a lineup that currently lacks a TE, a position they apparently think is optional. If Bri actually manages to drag some random TE off waivers, they could squeak out the win - but if not, we might see a rivalry game decided by sheer negligence.
COMMISH'S PICK: Badazz Bri
Do Not Panic vs Gotham Rogues
LINE: Gotham Rogues -14
This one looks like a mismatch from the start. Do Not Panic comes in shorthanded with Jacobs, Metcalf, and Doubs all out, leaving their lineup looking more like a practice squad than a contender. Meanwhile, Gotham Rogues may be missing a couple pieces, but they still trot out Puka Nacua and Justin Jefferson, which is like bringing a rocket launcher to a knife fight. The line says 14, but don’t be surprised if this turns into a full-blown beat-down that leaves Panic googling "fantasy football mercy rule."
COMMISH'S PICK: Gotham Rogues
Deez Nuts vs Uncle Bucky
LINE: Deez Nuts -6
On paper, Uncle Bucky should mop the floor with Deez Nuts - they’ve outscored them nearly every week this season and have the roster to back it up. But sometimes fantasy football doesn’t care about résumés, and this week smells kinda nutty. Kyler Murray against Tennessee could finally click, and if Nick Chubb or Deebo Samuel decide to show even a fraction of their former selves, suddenly the “underdog” doesn’t look so harmless. Call it ugly, call it luck, but Deez Nuts could finally fall backward into a win.
COMMISH'S PICK: Deez Nuts
Blue Ribbon vs MaxxCasualties
LINE: Blue Ribbon -12
MaxxCasualties may have the pedigree and the points, but Blue Ribbon’s had their number when it counts - twice last season, and by wide margins. Jalen Hurts against Denver feels like a get-right week, and Saquon Barkley can match Cook’s production stride for stride. If Cooper Kupp is still easing back into form, Ribbon’s balanced lineup looks a little safer than Casualties' “boom or bust” core. Sometimes ribbons aren’t just decoration - they’re the ones doing the wrapping.
COMMISH'S PICK: Blue Ribbon
Fat Cats vs Consolation Kings
LINE: Fat Cats -7
Fat Cats and Consolation Kings come into this one limping, but one team’s limp is a little more permanent. The Cats may be without Drake London due to the bye, but they’ve still got Nico Collins and Drake Maye who’s been quietly steady. The Kings, meanwhile, are without Burrow and Mixon for the year and are now leaning on Carson Wentz, which is about as inspiring as a microwaved Hot Pocket for dinner. The “What If” numbers also tilt toward the Cats (they would've won 3 of 4 contests this season), and unless the Kings pull off some miracle with Marvin Harrison Jr. or De’Von Achane, this one feels like it’s the Cats’ to lose. Someone’s going to claw their way to a win here…and it smells a lot like the Cats.
COMMISH'S PICK: Fat Cats
Pork Chop Express vs Who Is You
LINE: Who Is You -13
History doesn’t lie, and the Pork Chop Express has made a career out of throwing Who Is You off their high horse. While You enters undefeated and projected to score more, their “hold onto the crown” act looks shaky against Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams pounding away at their defense. The Chops have already proven time and again that they’re comfortable making You sweat, and this one feels like another ugly grind that ends with the Express squeaking by. Let’s just say the Pork Chops might be serving Who Is You a big plate of humble pie.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
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