Week 7 Commish's Picks

Commish
Oct 16
7 min read

I let you down this week. I know because once I was able to sit down and collect myself after a chaotic few days, I was bombarded with the emails: "Commish, where's our post?", "I need to know what you think of my Wk 6 performance?!?", "Commish, say something... anything. Let us know you're OK!"

I appreciate your concerns and eagerness to absorb the wisdom I offer each week. But this week just didn't offer the opportunity to put a recap post together.

But I have something better for you!

As is my custom after Week 6 every season, I'm excited to share with you your odds of making the playoffs and/or winning the SCL Championship Game based on your current record.

"WHAT?!?!!?", you say?

Yes, my scientifically-proven and peer-reviewed process has never been proven wrong. Is that because it's composed of probabilities rather than concrete predictions? Maybe.

If you recall, last year we were fortunate to have the one and only Seer of Seers, Sage of the East and former blackjack dealer at the El Cap - Carnac the Magnificent - help us with our Week 6 predictions. Unfortunately, I was unable to reach him this year... turns out he died in 2005. Who knew?

So, without all of the fanfare of last year, here is the table showing you a variety of postseason odds:

Those are the cold, hard facts explaining how your season will end, folks. I don't make 'em, I just calculate 'em. And if you disagree with the math, there's only one thing to do: go win games and prove it wrong.

Good luck!

Commish

Uncle Bucky vs Consolation Kings

LINE: Consolation Kings -9

Almost Arena is an appropriate stage for this matchup - because for Consolation Kings, it’s always been the story of almost. Almost made the playoffs. Almost had a top-tier QB. Almost had a healthy RB room. And after last week’s 137-point outburst, they almost look like the best team in the Cactus West… almost. Standing in their way is an Uncle Bucky squad that’s taken a soft schedule and turned it into cold, efficient wins. These two teams enter Week 7 locked in a three-way brawl for the Cactus West crown, and it’s fitting that this clash has earned Game of the Week honors.

Now don’t let the projections fool you. Bucky is built for bruising, averaging over 105 points per game and winning three straight. The schedule hasn’t exactly been brutal (14th-ranked SoS), but when your opponents are averaging a mere 85 points against you, sometimes all you need to do is show up with a few playmakers and a pulse. Kelce and the Chiefs D/ST get a tasty Vegas matchup, and Amon-Ra has been consistently delivering even in ugly Lions games. And then there’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who’s looking less like a WR3 and more like a heat-seeking missile the past two weeks.

The Kings bring plenty of momentum into this one and a 4-2 record to match Bucky’s. But they’ll need more than positive vibes and questionable tags to get the job done here. With Olave, Jacobs, and Achane all flagged, and Bryce Young still playing like he’s finishing a group project solo, the Kings' high ceiling may come crashing down. The talent is there, but it’s asking a lot of a roster that only recently remembered how to score. It feels like they're due for the kind of heartbreak that’s baked into their DNA.

History tends to repeat itself, especially when Bucky's the one holding the playbook and the shovel. I wouldn't be against the team that's never lost in this matchup. Take Uncle Bucky and the points because the Kings' comeback tour is about to take a pit stop.

COMMISH'S PICK: Uncle Bucky

Golden Tate Warriors vs Do Not Panic

LINE: EVEN

Sometimes a matchup doesn’t need playoff implications to be meaningful - it just needs two teams desperate to avoid full-on humiliation. Welcome to Composure Coliseum, where the Golden Tate Warriors and Do Not Panic are set to square off in a contest between two teams that have combined for three wins and about 100 sighs of regret. The Warriors' limp in at 2-4, losers of three straight, having scored fewer than 70 points in back-to-back weeks. Do Not Panic, meanwhile, is still trying to recover from a 61-point dud in Week 6 - their lowest output of the season. The good news? Someone has to win this one. Probably.

The Golden Tate Warriors have been battered by tough opponents all season (4th toughest schedule), but the real problem is their own performance - three straight games under 90 points, including a 67-point faceplant last week. Do Not Panic isn’t much better - they haven’t cracked 90 points since Week 4 and still have players on bye clogging up their starting roster like fantasy cholesterol. And yet, when these teams meet, chaos usually follows. Four of their seven all-time games have been decided by five points or less. In this kind of matchup, where lineups are brittle and projections are even, the quarterback becomes the hinge.

On paper, the Warriors' might have the flashier names - Ja’Marr Chase, Rome Odunze, Geno Smith - but that means little when half of them are injured, on bye, or underperforming. Rashee Rice is currently in Panic’s starting lineup despite being on a bye, and Brock Bowers is still clinging to a bench spot like he’s about to come back in time to save the season. But despite the personnel gaffes, Panic somehow feels like the more stable team here, especially with Tua’s matchup against Cleveland offering a higher floor than Geno’s tilt in Kansas City.

This will not be the prettiest game of the week, but it might be the most dramatic in a sad, slow-motion-car-wreck kind of way. The Warriors’ recent form is hard to trust, and if Geno is truly the X-factor, that’s about as comforting as a two-star Yelp review. Their margin for error is gone and - even though they're already driving on a donut - I think Panic gets it done... barely.

COMMISH'S PICK: Do Not Panic

Baby Got Dak vs Pork Chop Express

LINE: Pork Chop Express -7

After 23 meetings and a decade-plus of history, this rivalry doesn’t need much hype - but if you’re looking for drama, you won’t find it here. Pork Chop Express has won the last three against Baby Got Dak and looks poised to steamroll a fourth, especially with Baker Mayfield playing like he’s trying to win back every commercial deal he ever lost. Dak’s roster feels more like a triage tent than a fantasy squad right now, and while McCaffrey and Herbert have name-brand appeal, the rest of the starting lineup looks like it was picked from the discount bin. The Chops, however, are fresh off a 109-point showing and have already faced the league’s toughest schedule. Pork Chop Express will keep the pigskin rolling and leave Dak fans with nothing but a dry rub.

COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express

Deez Nuts vs Fat Cats

LINE: Deez Nuts -5

There’s a strange scent in the air this week, and I think it’s… upset? Deez Nuts are staring down a 0-6 barrel, but between Bo Nix’s steady rise and a surprisingly competent group of WRs, this team might finally be putting the pieces together. The Fat Cats, meanwhile, have all the look of a contender - and none of the consistency. Their scoring has ping-ponged from fireworks to fumbles - from 150 to 57 and then back up to 123. And if Calvin Ridley’s questionable tag becomes a Sunday morning scratch, things get dicey quick. It won’t be pretty, but the winless underdog just might have enough bite to sneak one out. Call it a long shot if you want, but I think The Litter Box is about to get raided.

COMMISH'S PICK: Deez Nuts

Cerebral Ballsy vs Blue Ribbon

LINE: Cerebral Ballsy -14

Cerebral Ballsy may be 2-4, but they’ve quietly posted the 6th-highest scoring average in the league and now sit on the verge of their third straight win over Blue Ribbon. With Jayden Daniels and Jonathan Taylor projected for big days and Keenan Allen lurking in a plus matchup, Ballsy brings serious firepower into Six-Pack Park. Meanwhile, Ribbon has been feasting on one of the easiest schedules in the league and will need more than their usual 98.3 to hang in this one. Hurts and Barkley have the name value, but they’ve been sputtering lately - and their WR corps looks more like a waiver wire sampler than a playoff-caliber group. If Jonathan Taylor does what I think he's about to do, Ballsy might uncork a statement win.

COMMISH'S PICK: Cerebral Ballsy

Gotham Rogues vs Badazz Bri

LINE: Gotham Rogues -8

The Boone’s Farm Drunk Tank is no stranger to sloppy matchups, and this one’s shaping up like a game of darts played with garden rakes. Badazz Bri stormed into the top of the standings with some early-season bravado, but the crash back to Earth has been loud and painful - highlighted by last week’s 56-point flop. The Rogues come in steadier and stronger, having outscored Bri in five of six weeks and rocking a lead in Power Rankings that’s tough to ignore. Bri will need a vintage performance from Jeanty and hope the Falcons D/ST doesn’t leak like a kiddie pool again. It'll be a close game, but my money's on the team that can actually spell "touchdown."

COMMISH'S PICK: Gotham Rogues

Tallahassee Tator Tots vs MaxxCasualties

LINE: MaxxCasualties -20

After frying the Warriors last week with a crispy 122-point performance, the Tator Tots might be feeling golden - but this week they step into The Killing Fields, where optimism goes to die. MaxxCasualties enters the matchup battle-tested, having faced the league’s toughest schedule so far and still posting over 110 points per game. Mahomes against Vegas is a dream scenario possibly worth 40+ points, and if Darren Waller is healthy enough to stand upright, he should feast on Cleveland’s linebackers. The Tots are banged up, and relying on Ricky Pearsall - who hasn’t played in weeks - feels more like a desperation toss than a tactical move. They've got grit, no doubt - especially with Bijan and Waddle heating up - but they're limping into this matchup without key pieces. I usually love a good underdog story, but this ain't it. MaxxCasualties wins and probably doesn't even break a sweat.

COMMISH'S PICK: MaxxCasualties

Los Perros Locos vs Who Is You

LINE: Who Is You -9

Two of the top three teams in the league collide at What Are I Field in a clash between the old dog and the new alpha. Los Perros Locos owns the all-time series lead 21-14, but Who Is You knocked them out of the playoffs last year and has won two straight in the rivalry. You enters the week licking their wounds after giving up 137 to the Consolation Kings last week in their first loss, while the Perros are coming in off back-to-back 100+ point outings and a 3-game winning streak. Caleb Williams vs. Dak Prescott is a fascinating QB duel, but Prescott has been red hot lately, and if he shows up again, What Are I Field could have a flea problem on their hands. Who Is You's undefeated home record is at risk and the dogs look ready to bite.

COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos