Week 1 Commish's Picks
- Commish
- 4 hours ago
- 9 min read
There is a brief and beautiful period every September when every team in the Sagebrush Cactus League believes it has a chance.
The drafts are complete. Rosters have been assembled. Depth charts have been studied. Every questionable purchase has been rationalized, every glaring weakness has been reclassified as "upside," and somewhere an owner is staring at a roster projected to finish near the bottom of the league while quietly thinking everyone else simply doesn't see what they see.
I cherish this time.
Not because I share your optimism. I simply enjoy observing it before evidence becomes available.
For months, you've studied rankings, monitored injuries, identified sleepers, developed strategies, and prepared yourselves for two nights that would determine the foundation of your season. Then the bidding started, someone nominated a player you weren't expecting, and approximately 40% of that preparation disappeared.
Now that the damage has been assessed, it's time to see how you did.
The Grades Are In
Cerebral Ballsy emerged from the drafts with the highest score in the league at 92%. Jonathan Taylor commanded $57, but Ballsy resisted the temptation to continue behaving irresponsibly, surrounding him with Kyren Williams for $25, Garrett Wilson for $20, Jordan Love for $10 and Tony Pollard for $8.
It was balanced. It was disciplined. It was annoyingly competent.
Fortunately, an excellent draft merely provides Cerebral Ballsy with better material to squander during the season.
Fat Cats wasn't far behind at 90%, but took a different approach. Rather than dumping half the treasury into one or two players, the Cats spread the money around. DeVonta Smith and Jadarian Price topped the shopping list at $30 apiece, followed by Nico Collins at $28 and Ladd McConkey and D'Andre Swift at $25.
No outrageous purchases. No obvious financial crimes. Just a surprisingly sensible allocation of resources.
I remain suspicious.
Gotham Rogues preferred a considerably simpler financial strategy: find three players and give them virtually all the money.
Puka Nacua cost $55. Omarion Hampton cost $52. Justin Jefferson cost $50.
That's $157—or nearly 79% of the available draft budget—committed to three players. The Rogues apparently embraced a roster-building philosophy best described as "Stars and Prayers." It's an intriguing approach, provided nobody gets injured, underperforms, misses time, or participates in any of the other events routinely associated with professional football.
Then there's Badazz Bri.
Bri paid $52 for Josh Allen.
For perspective, Lamar Jackson went for $45. Kyler Murray cost $25 (wow!). Jayden Daniels went for $20. Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes each cost $18. Jalen Hurts cost $14. Justin Herbert went for $5. Baker Mayfield cost $4.
Badazz Bri didn't simply buy a quarterback.
Bri purchased the luxury quarterback experience.
Perhaps Allen will be worth every dollar. Perhaps he'll produce such an extraordinary season that the additional $30–$40 Bri spent compared with several perfectly capable alternatives will seem insignificant.
Perhaps the tarot cards will explain it later.
At the other end of the financial spectrum were some purchases that could make their owners look considerably smarter than I prefer.
Justin Herbert for $5 and Baker Mayfield for $4 stand out in a quarterback market where apparently everyone was operating with a different exchange rate. Sam LaPorta and T.J. Hockenson each went for $1. Alvin Kamara and Calvin Ridley cost $2 apiece. Brian Thomas Jr. and Xavier Worthy were each acquired for $6.
Some of those will inevitably look like tremendous bargains by November.
Others will remind us why they were cheap.
And then we arrive at Do Not Panic.
Panic finished with the lowest draft score in the league at 51% while spending only $180 of its available $200 budget.
Ordinarily, saving $20 would demonstrate discipline. Under the new SCL waiver system, those unused dollars have even been transferred into their FAAB account, providing additional purchasing power during the season.
So there was technically a plan.
Unfortunately, the plan appears to have been leaving the draft with both the most money and the worst roster.
Still, Do Not Panic now has additional FAAB available to repair the roster it had additional draft money available to build correctly in the first place.
Efficiency comes in many forms.
The Science Behind the Grades
As always, the Draft Report Card grades were calculated using the SCL's proprietary evaluation system, combining projected player performance, positional value, auction efficiency, roster construction, three tarot readings, a blindfolded selection from an overturned Scrabble board, and the observed behavior of laboratory rodents navigating a maze containing sixteen miniature team logos and a small piece of cheese.
Any discrepancies were resolved through witchcraft.
The methodology has been independently reviewed and determined to be considerably more reliable than owner self-evaluation.
The complete Draft Report Card is available here for anyone interested in seeing precisely how poorly everyone else performed.
And Now We Play
The spreadsheets are finished. The auctions are over. The projections have been published. The grades have been assigned.
None of it matters anymore.
Beginning this week, players will outperform expectations. Stars will disappoint. Injuries will destroy carefully constructed plans. Someone nobody wanted for $1 will become the most sought-after player in the league. Someone purchased for $50 will spend three quarters making his owner question every decision that led to this moment.
And every one of you currently believes you're prepared for it.
Maybe you are.
Perhaps Cerebral Ballsy really drafted the league's best team. Perhaps the defending champion will simply continue winning. Perhaps one of the teams I graded poorly will spend the next four months demonstrating the limitations of my sophisticated rodent-based analytics.
There are sixteen teams, eight playoff spots, and one SCL Championship waiting at the end.
For the moment, everyone is 0–0.
Everyone has a chance.
Everyone has hope.
By next week, I should finally have some evidence.
I've missed that.
Welcome to the 2026 Sagebrush Cactus League season.
Try not to ruin it too quickly.
– Commish
Gotham Rogues vs Pork Chop Express
LINE: Pork Chop Express -2
The first Game of the Week sends Gotham Rogues into Little China for a rematch of 2024's 132–124 shootout, and for once the schedule has provided something worth my attention. The Rogues enter as the defending SCL runner-up with Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua returning, while the addition of Omarion Hampton finally gives them something resembling a running game. Apparently losing the Championship Game convinced him that wide receivers alone might not constitute a complete roster. Progress comes slowly around here.
Pork Chop Express presents a considerably different problem than the 7–7 team that missed last year's playoffs. Derrick Henry returns, but Dak Prescott and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have been added to an offense that suddenly looks capable of doing more than generating excuses. The Chops are favored by two, and with very little separating these teams on paper, I'm inclined to believe ESPN accidentally produced something useful.
Then there's Baker Mayfield, who spent last season with the Chops before being replaced by Dak Prescott and now gets to begin his Rogues career against his former team. Baker has never seemed particularly burdened by grudges, decorum, or the opinions of people who no longer wanted him, so I'm sure this will be a calm and emotionally insignificant reunion.
This has all the ingredients for the best game of Week 1, and I expect it to remain undecided deep into Sunday. Little China may belong to Pork Chop Express, but something tells me Baker arrives with a sizeable takeout order... and the Rogues leave with the fortune cookie and the upset.
COMMISH'S PICK: Gotham Rogues
Who Is You vs Do Not Panic
LINE: Who Is You -16
Every week deserves a Game of the Week. Unfortunately, every week also produces a game like this. Who Is You enters Composure Coliseum ranked 2nd in the Preseason Power Rankings and holding a 4–1 all-time record against Do Not Panic, including a 146–87 beating the last time these teams met. Panic counters as the league's 16th team with an 82-point projection and, presumably, several excellent plans for Sunday afternoon that don't involve checking fantasy scores.
Who Is You returns Jahmyr Gibbs, Brian Thomas Jr. and Emeka Egbuka while handing the offense to Jaxson Dart, which provides at least one legitimate source of uncertainty. Do Not Panic returns Romeo Doubs and Michael Mayer, which is technically also information. ESPN has installed You as a 16-point favorite, a number I can only assume was established out of professional courtesy.
Do Not Panic did beat Who Is You once, 134–91 back in 2023, so miracles are apparently documented in the league archives. I simply see no compelling reason to schedule another one this weekend.
For those unfamiliar with the Blackout Game of the Week, the concept is simple: spend time with your family, finish some yard work, perhaps learn a second language. Whatever you choose, remain composed. Who Is You should have this handled long before panic becomes necessary.
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
Cerebral Ballsy vs Deez Nuts
LINE: Cerebral Ballsy -14
Nothing says family bonding quite like opening the season at The Nut Hut and spending three hours hoping for the professional humiliation of a relative. Unfortunately for Deez Nuts, Cerebral Ballsy arrives with the better roster, a preseason ranking of 5th, and a 113–94 victory from their only previous meeting (week 8 of 2024), while Nuts counters with last year's 3–11 record, three questionable starters, and a lineup containing other questionable decisions. Jonathan Taylor, Garrett Wilson and Tony Pollard give Ballsy advantages through the heart of the lineup, leaving the Nuts dependent on Bo Nix, Ashton Jeanty and perhaps divine intervention to keep pace. Stranger things have happened in Week 1, although very few of them have happened to teams ranked 15th to begin the season.
COMMISH'S PICK: Cerebral Ballsy
Badazz Bri vs Los Perros Locos
LINE: Los Perros Locos -24
Badazz Bri arrives at The Puppy Mill fresh off their best regular season in team history, an 11–3 masterpiece made considerably less impressive by the inconvenient fact that nearly everyone else in the league scored more points. Perros finished just 7–7 but averaged 19.4 more points per week than Badazz Bri, and this matchup has rarely been kind to Bri: the Dogs are 12–4 all-time and have topped 100 points in 10 of their 16 meetings, while BB has managed it three times. Making matters worse, six of Bri's nine starters enter Week 1 listed as questionable, which seems excessive even for a team whose outlook I routinely describe the same way. Historically, when Los Perros Locos wins this matchup, the average margin is 36.7 points, making the current 24-point spread look almost charitable. Badazz Bri may have gone 11–3 last year, but I suspect home team is about to remind everyone why wins without points eventually get put down.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
Golden Tate Warriors vs Baby Got Dak
LINE: Baby Got Dak -4
Golden Tate Warriors has beaten Baby Got Dak 15 times in 24 meetings, including a 107–68 dismantling the last time these two met, yet somehow arrives at Faux Dak Field as a 4-point underdog. Dak certainly has the lineup to justify the optimism, although building your Week 1 hopes around a questionable Christian McCaffrey feels a little like purchasing a Ferrari and immediately checking the warranty. This contest marks the first time these league originals have faced each other to open the season. History says the Warriors either beat Dak comfortably or lose painfully close, like that 136–136 tiebreaker loss in 2023 that proved even matching your opponent point-for-point isn't always sufficient. Give me the points – I have a feeling the only thing Faux about Dak Field this week will be the home-field advantage.
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
Tortuga vs Uncle Bucky
LINE: Tortuga -2
There are easier ways to introduce yourself to the SCL than walking into the Hatchet House, but Tortuga apparently prefers to learn about poor decisions through experience. Uncle Bucky scored like a contender last season while somehow finishing 7–7, an impressive demonstration of how to turn plenty of points into remarkably little accomplishment. Tortuga arrives with Lamar Jackson, Ja'Marr Chase and absolutely no historical evidence suggesting they know what they're doing, yet the newcomers are actually projected to hold a narrow 98–96 advantage. Bucky has enough talent to spoil the debut, but after watching Bucky repeatedly find creative ways to waste points last season, I'm reluctant to assume competence suddenly arrives in Week 1. Tortuga may be new to these waters, but I wouldn't be surprised if they swim out of the Hatchet House with their first piece of SCL plunder.
COMMISH'S PICK: Tortuga
Tallahassee Tator Tots vs Fat Cats
LINE: Fat Cats -6
Fat Cats host the Tator Tots to open the season, where their brief history together has consisted mostly of the Cats explaining why the Tots should have stayed home. The Cats won their only regular-season meeting against the Tots, 101–87, in 2024 then added a 127–87 beating in last year's Consolation Bracket. However nothing captures the Tots' competitive excellence quite like starting Aaron Rodgers during his bye week in that first meeting. Both teams missed the playoffs last season, but Fat Cats salvaged a 7–7 record and Consolation championship while the Tots limped home at 4–10, so there are varying degrees of failure represented here. The Tots have enough talent to make the six-point spread interesting, provided Breece Hall, Mike Evans and Carnell Tate are healthy—and everyone in the starting lineup is actually playing football this week. Until the Tots demonstrate they've learned to check the NFL schedule, I'll take the Cats to bury another one in The Litter Box.
COMMISH'S PICK: Fat Cats
MaxxCasualties vs Consolation Kings
LINE: Consolation Kings -14
MaxxCasualties begin the season as the rare 6–8 team that somehow made the playoffs last season, proving once again that postseason appearances occasionally say more about your division than your team. The Casualties did hammer Consolation Kings 125–86 in their only previous meeting back in 2024, but the Kings have since added a rather important item to the résumé: an SCL Championship following a 10–4 regular season. De'Von Achane and Bijan Robinson give the Kings a substantial advantage in the backfield, while Casulaties counters with Jared Goff and the comforting knowledge that Patrick Mahomes is available should something go terribly wrong—which may not take long. The Kings are favored by 14, and I see considerably more evidence supporting the spread than another 39-point MaxxCasualties miracle. Almost Arena finally has a champion calling it home; I expect the Kings to begin their title defense by reminding MaxxCasualties that almost making the playoffs legitimately isn't the same thing.
COMMISH'S PICK: Consolation Kings
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