Week 3 Commish's Picks
Two weeks was enough time to be optimistic. Three weeks is when we begin collecting evidence.
By now, the undefeated teams have started convincing themselves this might actually be their year, while the winless have been busy identifying injuries, schedules, projections, weather patterns and unfavorable planetary alignments to explain why the standings are clearly misleading. Some of them even have a point. Unfortunately, the standings remain stubbornly uninterested in context.
Week 3 brings our first real opportunity to separate early-season noise from developing problems. We've got undefeated teams being tested, winless teams running out of comfortable explanations, a Game of the Week that could shake up a division, and another contest I've graciously identified as safe to ignore entirely. There are backup quarterbacks, wounded rosters, old grudges, new rivalries and at least one point spread that suggests somebody wasn't paying attention. Optimism is still permitted—for another few days, anyway.
– Commish
Cerebral Ballsy vs Tortuga
LINE: Cerebral Ballsy -4
The first-ever meeting between Cerebral Ballsy and Tortuga gets Game of the Week honors, and for once I didn't have to lower my standards to find one. Ballsy arrives at The Slow Dome undefeated, ranked 4th in the Power Rankings and favored by four, while Tortuga is trying to prove that last week's 92-point stumble in Gotham was merely the first bad decision of a young and otherwise promising franchise.
On paper, Cerebral Ballsy probably deserves the edge. Jonathan Taylor has been excellent through two weeks, Christian Watson has been producing, and they've quietly put together consecutive wins without requiring any miracles from the scheduling department. But Week 3 isn't especially kind to the Ballsy backfield: Taylor draws Houston and Kyren Williams heads to Denver. Tortuga, meanwhile, has several matchups that look considerably more inviting, which is useful when you're trying to erase the memory of David Montgomery contributing two points and the Lions defense contributing negative five. Everyone deserves a second chance. Even people who started those two.
What makes this interesting is that Tortuga hasn't looked overwhelmed by the SCL yet. The expansion team opened with 121 points, stumbled to 92 last week, and now gets its first opportunity to measure itself against an undefeated division opponent. Lamar Jackson, Ja'Marr Chase, Chuba Hubbard and Dalton Kincaid give the turtles enough upside that I'm not particularly interested in the four-point spread—or Ballsy's shiny 2-0 record.
This feels like one of those games that stays uncomfortable into Sunday night and gets decided by whichever lineup produces one fewer regrettable performance. Ballsy may enter this contest undefeated, but I'm sensing the first crack in the armor. Slow and steady doesn't always win the race—but this week, I think it wins the Game of the Week.
COMMISH'S PICK: Tortuga
Gotham Rogues vs Golden Tate Warriors
LINE: Gotham Rogues -9
There are games deserving of your attention, and then there are games I highlight specifically so you know when it's safe to mow the lawn. Welcome to the Blackout Game of the Week, where Gotham Rogues visits Tate's Retirement Retreat to face a Golden Tate Warriors team that has spent the first two weeks exploring just how little production nine starters can collectively provide.
Historically, this matchup has been oddly predictable. The series is tied 2-2, but when the Warriors win, it's by an average of 37 points; the Rogues' two victories have come by an average of just 1.5. Don't expect either tradition to survive this week. The Warriors have scored 69 and 63 points to open the season, Saquon Barkley followed a disappointing Week 1 with one point and an injury in Week 2, and A.J. Brown and Jordan Mason are already parked on IR. Even Bryce Young's 27 points last week couldn't make the wreckage competitive.
The Rogues aren't exactly arriving as a model of stability. Sam Darnold is questionable, Puka Nacua is questionable and apparently headed for the bench, and the physical therapy room has enough players hanging around to begin scheduling team meetings. But the early return on the league's first trade looks promising: Travis Kelce immediately delivered 20 points last week while RJ Harvey watched from BGD's infirmary. For a team that spends half the season proposing trades to anyone willing to make eye contact, it's nice to occasionally see one work.
Here's my favorite bit of useless history: add up every point these teams have scored during the years they've shared the SCL, and the Warriors lead the Rogues by just 11. Eleven points separating them across all that football. Fascinating. Unfortunately, none of those points can be carried into Sunday. Gotham Rogues should handle Golden "Taint" comfortably this week. The only real suspense at the Retirement Retreat is whether the Warriors' offense wakes up from its nap.
COMMISH'S PICK: Gotham Rogues
MaxxCasualties vs Tallahassee Tator Tots
LINE: Tallahassee Tator Tots -10
History says MaxxCasualties should feel pretty comfortable here: they're 3-1 against Tallahassee Tator Tots and has held them to just 84.3 points per game, including a 52-point demolition in their first meeting. The problem with history is that it doesn't appear to have seen this year's Tots squad, which is 2-0, averaging 127 points and coming off a 134-point performance that launched them seven spots up the Power Rankings. The Tots also appear to have the better collection of weapons this week, with CeeDee Lamb, Breece Hall, Trey McBride and company facing a Casualties roster that remains dangerously dependent on Patrick Mahomes doing Patrick Mahomes things. MaxxCasualties did get their first win last week, but even 34 from Mahomes was only enough to help produce 116—eleven points below what Tallahassee Tator Tots have been averaging. Maybe the Casualties' strange hold over the Tots continues, but I'm not betting on history rescuing them again. The Tots haven't scored more than 105 against MaxxCasualties before, but these aren't your grandmother's Tater Tots—I'm taking them crispy and well done this week.
COMMISH'S PICK: Tallahassee Tator Tots
Fat Cats vs Consolation Kings
LINE: Consolation Kings -3
Fat Cats have been trying to get past Consolation Kings for three straight meetings, and last year's 130-105 loss was particularly expensive—it helped send the Cats to the Consolation Bracket while the Kings continued toward an actual championship. This might be the Cats' best opportunity to return the favor, because Caleb Williams' hamstring has forced the Consolation Kings to hand the offense to Kirk Cousins, which isn't generally how defending champions draw things up. Unfortunately for them, the rest of the Kings' roster remains annoyingly capable of compensating for mistakes. Bijan Robinson, De'Von Achane, Chris Olave and a Steelers defense averaging 22.5 points give the Kings plenty of ways to survive mediocre quarterback play, while the Fat Cats are still waiting for several players to remember that projections aren't participation trophies. The door is open just enough for them to make this interesting, and I wouldn't be shocked if they finally push through it. I would, however, be a little surprised—which is why I'm sticking with the defending champs. Almost Arena should provide the Consolation Kings with almost enough quarterback production, and against the Cats, that should be enough.
COMMISH'S PICK: Consolation Kings
Baby Got Dak vs Pork Chop Express
LINE: Pork Chop Express -8
This rivalry enters its 15th season perfectly tied at 13 wins apiece, although “rivalry” might imply the games themselves have been competitive. They haven't—the average victory margin is north of 30 points for both teams, and we haven't seen a single-digit finish since 2020. History suggests somebody is getting embarrassed; the only question is which logo gets attached to it. Pork Chop Express certainly looks better equipped to avoid that fate. The Chops are 2-0, averaging 120.5 points, and have somehow produced the league's highest-scoring WR in consecutive weeks—first Zay Flowers, then Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Baby Got Dak counters with Justin Herbert, the continued absence of the Dak for which the team is named, and a questionable DJ Moore after watching him leave last week's game with zero points. Christian McCaffrey gives Dak a puncher's chance, but the Chops simply have more places for points to come from right now. Little China has seen plenty of pork over the years, but this week I expect Baby Got Dak to be the one getting chopped.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
Uncle Bucky vs Deez Nuts
LINE: Even
Uncle Bucky limps into The Nut Hut at 0-2 and without Jayden Daniels, which would normally concern me if the opponent weren't Deez Nuts. Bucky will hand the offense to Cam Ward, whose 15-point average isn't exactly inspiring, but Deez Nuts has spent two weeks establishing that inspiration will not be necessary. The Nuts did manage to beat Baby Got Dak last week, although 92 points isn't exactly a declaration of competence, and now Malik Nabers and Aaron Jones are both questionable. Bucky, meanwhile, has won the last two meetings and still has Amon-Ra St. Brown doing enough heavy lifting to make a backup quarterback survivable. So yes, I'm taking an 0-2 team starting their second-string quarterback on the road. Bucky gets their first win of the season, because when the competition is Deez Nuts, sometimes all you need is a backup plan.
COMMISH'S PICK: Uncle Bucky
Badazz Bri vs Do Not Panic
LINE: Do Not Panic -2
Badazz Bri enters Composure Coliseum at 0-2, which normally isn't something worth bragging about until you notice they've scored 224 points and faced the toughest schedule in the league. Do Not Panic is also 0-2, except they've scored 92 points total—which is less "unfortunate scheduling" and more "ongoing investigation." Naturally, Panic is somehow favored by two points, presumably because whoever sets these lines hasn't actually watched them play. Do Not Panic appears ready to give Kyler Murray another opportunity after his inspiring negative two-point performance in Week 1, while Bri counters with Josh Allen, who has produced 87 points through two weeks and may eventually file for workers' compensation from carrying this roster. Badazz Bri swept both meetings last season and, despite the records and whatever recreational substances influenced that point spread, looks like the considerably better team again. Bri should finally get rewarded for actually scoring points. Panic should concentrate on getting some.
COMMISH'S PICK: Badazz Bri
Who Is You vs Los Perros Locos
LINE: Los Perros Locos -5
Who Is You heads to The Puppy Mill for the 39th installment of a rivalry that dates back to 2009, and they have the satisfaction of knowing they sent the Perros home in last year's playoffs. Unfortunately, satisfaction doesn't score points, and the dogs have spent the first two weeks scoring plenty of them—286 to be exact—while earning consecutive Survivor Immunities and planting themselves firmly atop the Power Rankings. You's bigger concern is at quarterback. Jaxson Dart's season is over, leaving C.J. Stroud to take over after he watched from the sideline last week with the 17 points that likely would have won the game. Los Perros Locos isn't entirely healthy either—Josh Jacobs remains suspended and Dallas Goedert is doubtful—but Kenneth Walker, Davante Adams and Jalen Hurts have helped make those inconveniences rather than excuses. There is enough history here that I don't expect Who Is You to simply roll over, and the projections suggest only five points separate them. But projections have been trying to catch up with the Perros for two weeks now. Who Is You ended the Perros' season last year, but revenge has a long memory—and this week, I expect it to have teeth.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
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