Week 4 Commish's Picks
Three weeks of football have provided enough data for the amateurs to start talking about trends, projections and sample sizes. I’ve moved beyond all of that. This week, I examined a variety of other theories, disciplines, philosophies, and several mathematical principles that would probably concern an actual mathematician. The conclusions are undeniable, provided nobody attempts to verify them.
Some owners will look at these picks and question the methodology. Those owners are welcome to develop their own predictive model and be wrong independently. I have followed the evidence wherever it led—even when it led somewhere evidence has no business being. Welcome to Week 4. The science is settled.
– Commish
Deez Nuts vs Tortuga
LINE: Tortuga -10
Deez Nuts have scored 78, 92 and 67 points through three weeks, which looks troubling until you recognize the obvious pattern: the Nuts perform best in even-numbered weeks. Week 2 produced 92 points and their only victory; Week 4 is also even, and I refuse to ignore evidence simply because there is only one piece of it. Meanwhile, Tortuga has followed their “this league is easy” declaration with two straight losses, a Survivor elimination, and now the indignity of having ESPN believe they should win by ten. The numbers have spoken, ESPN has been overruled, and Tortuga has already spent enough time coming out of their shell. This week, Deez Nuts get some love.
COMMISH'S PICK: Deez Nuts
Baby Got Dak vs Gotham Rogues
LINE: Gotham Rogues -13
Baby Got Dak is a 13-point underdog, which would concern me if the Rogues hadn’t spent the first three weeks treating their roster like a Facebook Marketplace listing. Four trades later, the Rogues now start Saquon Barkley, Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson and Travis Kelce—four players whose last names contain a combined 25 letters; Dak counters with Brown, McCaffrey, Rice and Pitts, totaling 23. The Rogues therefore have two unnecessary letters, which feels appropriate for a team that has spent the season acquiring things they didn’t need. I’ll take the shorter spelling and the bigger upset: Baby Got Dak shocks Gotham City—still without Dak, because apparently false advertising works.
COMMISH'S PICK: Baby Got Dak
Pork Chop Express vs Golden Tate Warriors
LINE: Pork Chop Express -24
Pork Chop Express have scored 119, 122 and 135 points, which means their weekly output has increased by 3, then 13. Anyone familiar with responsible statistical analysis can see what comes next: the increase itself jumped by 10, so the next increase should be 23, putting the Chops at 158 points this week. The Warriors, meanwhile, have scored 69, 63 and 72, which suggests less of a mathematical sequence and more of a cry for adult supervision. I’ve run the numbers twice. The Pork Chop Express isn’t stopping at Tate’s Retirement Retreat—it’s going through the living room.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
Los Perros Locos vs Do Not Panic
LINE: Los Perros Locos -11
Los Perros Locos is coming off their first loss, while Do Not Panic has spent three weeks steadily improving from 37 to 55 to 59 points—progress that should be acknowledged, preferably with a sticker. The deciding factor is simpler: Panic is starting Kyler Murray against Miami, and everyone knows dolphins are considerably smarter than vikings; meanwhile Perros’ Jalen Hurts faces the Rams, and a grown man can defeat a sheep in most controlled environments. I’ve accounted for home field, weather, and the possibility that the animals receive weapons. The science still favors the Perros. The dogs get fed. Do Not Panic remains appropriately named only if nobody is paying attention.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
Who Is You vs Badazz Bri
LINE: Who Is You -15
Who Is You is favored by 15, but I found something far more compelling than ESPN’s projections: Badazz Bri is starting Josh Allen against New England while Who Is You starts C.J. Stroud against Dallas. New England is literally named for an entire region; Dallas is merely one city. Allen therefore has considerably more territory to cover, while Stroud can concentrate his efforts on a single municipality—a workload advantage ESPN’s so-called experts have somehow overlooked. Efficiency matters. You handles Dallas while Badazz Bri gets lost somewhere in New Hampshire.
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
Uncle Bucky vs Cerebral Ballsy
LINE: Cerebral Ballsy -5
Uncle Bucky and Cerebral Ballsy are both Pisces, which ordinarily would leave astrology useless for determining a winner—until I noticed the obvious tiebreaker. Pisces is represented by two fish swimming in opposite directions, and Ballsy enters 3-0 while Bucky enters 1-2; these teams are already moving in opposite directions, exactly as the stars intended. I could ignore several thousand years of celestial wisdom and pretend Bucky has a chance, but I have standards. The stars have aligned. Ballsy swims to 4-0 while Bucky sleeps with the fishes.
COMMISH'S PICK: Cerebral Ballsy
Fat Cats vs MaxxCasualties
LINE: MaxxCasualties -1
The Fat Cats are 0-3, which sounds dire until you remember that cats have nine lives, meaning they have technically used only a third of their available supply. Unfortunately, I checked the fine print and discovered those lives prevent death; they do not guarantee victory, which explains quite a bit about the first three weeks. MaxxCasualties, meanwhile, has won two straight and arrives with a name that suggests their entire purpose is increasing the body count. Curiosity may have killed the cat, but this week MaxxCasualties gets the credit.
COMMISH'S PICK: MaxxCasualties
Consolation Kings vs Tallahassee Tator Tots
LINE: Consolation Kings -6
The Consolation Kings have won three straight, which means complacency has had ample time to settle in, and fortunately the Tots brought the appropriate remedy: potatoes. Tater tots are cooked at roughly 400°F, while the melting point of a typical gold alloy is somewhere north of 1,500°F, which admittedly sounds favorable for the Kings until you remember the Consolation Kings are a consolation monarchy—I refuse to believe they sprung for actual gold. Three weeks on the throne is long enough anyway; revolutions have started over less. I smell an upset cooking at Ketchup Coliseum. This week, the Tots serve up the Kings well-done.
COMMISH'S PICK: Tallahassee Tator Tots
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